The companies operating in the United States could get a boost and be at higher risk for the best deals. Both are linked to the connections between psychological thinking and the global action mark.


Zum Jahresende 2024 erscheinen US-Aktien im historicen Vergleich teuer. On November 1, 2024, the US price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE Ratio) of the S&P 500 was doubled by 38 months, making it long over time.1




Yale University professor Robert Shiller gave Kennzahl a long-term review of market studies.2 If the inflation figures of recent years have ended, it is a volatile trend if the Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis (KGV) is on the Unternehmensgewinnen for the short-term basis.


Based on the principles of the current means of reversion, KGVs are able to keep their energy in mind. Auch wenn Umsatz und Gewinn von Unternehmen über längere Zeiträume hint zuegen können – Apple zum Beispiel hat seinen Nettogewinn from 2005 to 2024 from 1.3 Billion. US dollar at 94 billion. US Dollar is on the rise (after reaching a high of 99 Billion US Dollars in the year 2022) – it is an indisputable fact that the KGVs are unfounded. The KGV is not a maß for the large or profitable undertaking of Unternehmen, while the Verhältnis zwischen zwei unterschiedlichen Größen dar, die in een wirtschaftlichen Beziehung zeinander stehen: Aktienkurs and Unternehmensgewinn. Die vom KGV ausgedrückte Beziehung de Investors en de Fundamentaldaten von Unternehmen kan kurzfristigig variieren and für unterchiedliche Arten von Aktien as well as unterschiedliche Regionen unterschiedlich hoch ausfallen (higher bei waitstumsstärkeren Unternehmen and wirtschaftlich dynamicren Regionen) – weist aber ein Mean-Reversion-Element on: An elastic KGV can become overloaded and weaker towards the medium term.


The Shiller PE lies deutlich über dem langfristigen Durchnitt:


Quelle: Professor Robert Shiller, published below https://shillerdata.com/


The breakout of 17.5 for the S&P 500’s Zyklusbereinigte KGV (CAPE) was seen on the Zeitraum date of 1881. If the man has a kürzeren Zeitraum of 30 years, the Durchschnittswert is higher (28), vom aktuellen Wert aber immer noch um mehr as a Drittel topped.


The CAPE ratio war is higher, as it is: Ihren high was at 44 in December 1999, at the height of the Dotcom-Blase, before then in the years 2000 to 2001. If we have a house, one of get the latest insights and the best technology from the market during Parallels with Dotcom-Boom. The market euphoria of the 1990s has evolved into Internet access, with intelligent intelligence (AI) hitting the big hype topics in the market. A typical psychological mindset from history is that new technology on the Internet or AI is moving into a long transformative transformation.


Psychological Thinking Cases


Professor Shiller is one of the experts in the field of market psychology. In seinem Buch “Irrational Exuberance” it is better a qualitative definition of a market blase:


A situation in which the emphasis is on the price of the story’s enthusiasm and which is further expanded by psychological analysis. The fact is that matters are settled, that the one prize the woman has earned is still more extended, and more woolly things are done; If you know that the research has started, while the investments have been researched by others, the others will not be involved and it will be a success story.3


Shiller won the Nobel Prize in 2013 together with Eugene Fama and Lars Peter Hansen. In the case of Speech of the Entgegennahme des Nobel Prizes, the Famas Theory of the efficient market (which has reached the main investment urge, there are so many investors on passive Index-Tracker setszen) as proven. The theory of efficient market research, when all financial markets have started working, relevant information on the market price is offered. Shiller and others are dying for a rationalist understanding of the functions of the market.


That is the reality that gives us insight into everything else as rational and the market mirror that broadens the psychological brainpower of the market. Manchmal is irrational. So Brad Barber and Terrance Odean from the University of California have been given money, that is, they cannot work, but they may be spprochen – their Beispiel Aktien with a strong medium, trading volume or extreme results.4


Evangelos Benos and Marek Jocheck have celebrated the holiday, while the US entrepreneurs have been given the name “America(n)” or “USA”, which has called the Zweiten Weltkriegs, the Korean Kriegs and the Kriegs against Terror (on September 11 2001 ) positive Renditen of running sechs Prozent pro Jahr erzielten.5


The psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman have argued that in the treatment of research, humans have generally acquired an incomprehensible insight into the heuristic principles of research, the treatment of complex machines. Tversky and Kahnemann can expand their knowledge of matters – consider the thinking and time processes that can produce their irrational results. I am an English-speaking man from “Biases”.6 A thirtieth bias is the only form of anchor effect. If you turn off the inflow while obtaining information or information, you can get an impression of the sogenannte anchor or references. One of the advantages is that the phenomenon of anchor effects is expanding. So involve some of the young people who take an action if it is fair and the search for a solution, or if the action is messed up and others, the rationality of the criticism can be greater.


The market capitalization of the S&P 500 is one of the best indices of the S&P 500:


Quelle: Bloomberg, as of November 13, 2024


Konzentrationsriskiko


One of the stocks that an ETF bought on the S&P 500 invests in a Drittel money in the entire index of the 500 Aktien. The Magnificent 7 (NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Tesla) quickly brings its sister to a Drittel7 der Market Capitalization of the Index. It’s one of the Kauf ETFs on the S&P 500 that does all things technology and growth analysis. If this is not the case, it is not possible to perform this analysis and the concentration risks are high. Once the time has come, it is not the case that the weight of the market is and that the weight of the market can be reduced (weight after market capitalization, weight weight, weight weight, quality weight, weight after new volatilität – um nur) eenige nennen). We can use a capitalization weight strategy that includes S&P 500 Trackers as active analysis. I hope that by 2025 I will be blind and “passive”, wollen.


Von Amadeo Alentorn, chief investment manager at Jupiter Systematics Equities


1 Quelle: Professor Robert Shiller, published below https://shillerdata.com
2 Weiterfuhrende Informationen below http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm
3 Robert Shiller, Irrational Exuberance, Princeton University Press, 2000
4 Barber and Odean, 2008, All that Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional, Investors Review of Financial Studies, 21(2):785–818. Paint bar underneath https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=460660
5 Benos and Jocheck, Patriotic Name Bias and Stock Returns, Journal of Financial Markets, 16(3):550–70, 2013. Verfügbar unter https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=993289
6 Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases Science, New Series, Vol. 185, no. 4157. (September 27, 1974), pp. 1124-1131. Paint bar underneath https://www2.psych.ubc.ca/~schaller/Psyc590Readings/TverskyKahneman1974.pdf
7:00 AM November 13, 2024 I think the Magnificent 7 earned a 31.9% interest on the S&P 500’s market cap.


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